Qualified hitters ranked by a blended, within-league score (wRC+ + xwOBA, home runs, baserunning, defense, WAR — two-way pitching WAR included). A data-driven read on the AL & NL MVP races — with Shohei Ohtani and Japan’s bats highlighted, plus overseas fan reactions. Tap any row for the full breakdown.
As of 2026-07-09 19:35
Prediction score = each hitter’s within-league percentile in wRC+ + xwOBA (50%), home runs (15%), WAR (25%), baserunning (5%) and defense incl. positional adjustment (5%), blended. Weights are calibrated to how MVP voting actually behaves — offense first, defense and baserunning as tiebreakers. Two-way players (Ohtani) count pitching WAR too, with the defense weight shifted to WAR (he contributes on the mound instead of in the field). It’s our data-driven read, not a verdict — MVP is a within-league race. Qualified hitters only (~285 PA).
| # | Hitter | Score | wRC+ | OPS | HR | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Los Angeles Dodgers · League-best 6.1 WAR, 156 wRC+ · two-way (+3 pitching WAR) | 94.5 | 156 | .939 | 20 | 6.1 | |
| 2 |  Chicago Cubs · League-best defense, 5.5 WAR · riding luck (xwOBA 0.366) | 93.2 | 150 | .928 | 21 | 5.5 | |
| 3 |  Washington Nationals · League-best 156 wRC+, 25 HR · contact even better (xwOBA 0.432) | 92.2 | 156 | .948 | 25 | 3.8 | |
| 4 |  New York Mets · League-best 168 wRC+, 3 WAR | 87.4 | 168 | .978 | 20 | 3.0 | |
| 5 |  Philadelphia Phillies · League-best 32 HR, 152 wRC+ | 82.6 | 152 | .945 | 32 | 2.6 | |
| 6 |  Atlanta Braves · League-best 24 HR, 138 wRC+ | 82.3 | 138 | .878 | 24 | 2.9 | |
| 7 | Los Angeles Dodgers · League-best 3.1 WAR, defense | 81.6 | 134 | .857 | 17 | 3.1 | |
| 8 |  St. Louis Cardinals · League-best 142 wRC+, 21 HR | 81.0 | 142 | .889 | 21 | 2.6 | |
| 9 | Los Angeles Dodgers · League-best 141 wRC+, 2.8 WAR | 80.6 | 141 | .881 | 15 | 2.8 | |
| 10 |  Miami Marlins · League-best 4.3 WAR, baserunning · riding luck (xwOBA 0.342) | 76.2 | 141 | .893 | 9 | 4.3 | |
| 11 | Atlanta Braves · League-best 131 wRC+, 2.6 WAR | 75.8 | 131 | .847 | 16 | 2.6 | |
| 12 |  Arizona Diamondbacks · League-best baserunning, 3.3 WAR | 75.2 | 131 | .850 | 13 | 3.3 | |
| ⋯ lower in the field | |||||||
| 46 | Chicago Cubs · Solid all-around | 44.3 | 116 | .791 | 14 | 1.5 | |
| # | Hitter | Score | wRC+ | OPS | HR | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Houston Astros · League-best 182 wRC+, 29 HR · contact even better (xwOBA 0.472) | 90.0 | 182 | 1.030 | 29 | 4.0 | |
| 2 |  Chicago White Sox · League-best 3.3 WAR, 137 wRC+ · contact even better (xwOBA 0.403) | 88.6 | 137 | .841 | 20 | 3.3 | |
| 3 |  Kansas City Royals · League-best defense, 4.7 WAR · contact even better (xwOBA 0.394) | 86.3 | 126 | .818 | 12 | 4.7 | |
| 4 |  Detroit Tigers · League-best 3.9 WAR, defense · contact even better (xwOBA 0.380) | 86.0 | 130 | .841 | 19 | 3.9 | |
| 5 |  Athletics · League-best 152 wRC+, 3.2 WAR | 85.8 | 152 | .912 | 20 | 3.2 | |
| 6 |  New York Yankees · League-best 158 wRC+, 26 HR · riding luck (xwOBA 0.376) | 84.2 | 158 | .936 | 26 | 2.7 | |
| 7 |  Boston Red Sox · League-best 153 wRC+, 2.8 WAR | 83.7 | 153 | .921 | 20 | 2.8 | |
| 8 |  Los Angeles Angels · League-best 141 wRC+, 18 HR · contact even better (xwOBA 0.411) | 82.9 | 141 | .874 | 18 | 2.5 | |
| 9 |  Tampa Bay Rays · League-best 26 HR, 150 wRC+ | 82.7 | 150 | .907 | 26 | 2.9 | |
| 10 |  Minnesota Twins · League-best 25 HR, 146 wRC+ · riding luck (xwOBA 0.351) | 81.8 | 146 | .903 | 25 | 2.9 | |
| 11 | Detroit Tigers · League-best baserunning, 3.9 WAR | 77.6 | 136 | .821 | 7 | 3.9 | |
| 12 | Athletics · League-best 20 HR, defense | 74.4 | 124 | .813 | 20 | 2.2 | |
| ⋯ lower in the field | |||||||
| 24 |  Toronto Blue Jays · League-best 21 HR | 59.5 | 114 | .776 | 21 | 1.9 | |
Not yet PA-qualified — where Japan’s bats stand right now.
Data: MLB Stats API + Baseball Savant (public factual figures). 2026 season, as of 2026-07-09 19:35.
What overseas fans are saying about the MVP contenders — Ohtani and the rest of the field.
MLB大谷翔平が第二子の誕生で“育休”に入ったあと、復帰初戦の打席でいきなりホームラン。生まれたばかりの我が子に捧げる一発に、しかも米国は父の日。MLB公式ハイライトのコメント欄は世界中からの祝福で埋まった。『赤ちゃんに約束してたんだろ』『初めての息子に捧げる一発だ』と父になった大谷を称える声、『8試合で5発＋新しい我が子、とんでもない一ヶ月だ』と6月の固め打ちに沸く声、さらに『投球回が足りなくてもMVPには関係ない』とMVP論争まで再燃。『おかえりショウヘイ』『公式の動画アップはやすぎだろ』と復帰を喜ぶ空気のなか、最後は誰もが思わず頷く“身も蓋もない一言”で締まる。
MLB子供の頃に野球をやってた“超ライト層”が「大谷って投手・打者・総合で実際どのくらい凄いの？」と素朴に質問。海外ファンたちの回答はおおむね一致して『投手＝健康ならトップ10〜15（ただし2度目の肘手術明けで判断が難しい）／打者＝トップ2／総合＝MLB史上最高の二刀流』。途中から『打者の1位はジャッジか大谷か』という恒例の大論争に発展し、走塁価値・OPS・WARを持ち出す数字バトルに。さらに『打者1位なのに総合2位ってどういう計算だよｗ』という理屈ツッコミ、長寿記録を盾にしたGOAT慎重派 vs MVP3個で殿堂入り確定派の応酬も。締めは“あの賭博スキャンダル”をいじる皮肉の一言でオチ。
MLB『大谷が投げて、いつも通り打てば、5度目のMVPはもう確定でしょ？他の誰が何をすれば勝てるの？』というカジュアルファンの素朴な問いから始まったスレ。返ってきた答えはほぼ全員一致で『野球は難しいスポーツだから』。誰かが大不調に陥るか、誰かが規格外の年を出すか——それくらいしか付け入る隙はないという結論に。一方で“投票疲れ（voter fatigue）”や『ドジャースは大谷なしでも勝てる』論で別の選手に入れる記者が出る、という冷めた読みも。途中、賭博スキャンダルを蒸し返す者が現れて即論破される一幕も。締めは『プロの見立てとして、彼は良い年か悪い年のどちらかになる。たぶん史上に残る“野球の年”の一つになると思う』という名（迷）言。
